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    Breaking the Ice? India and Pakistan Poised for First Steps on a Long Road to Reconciliation

    For nearly a decade, India and Pakistan’s bilateral relations have been in a deep freeze, marked by mutual distrust and a sharp decline in diplomatic and cultural exchanges. However, recent developments suggest that the ice may be starting to thaw, with both nations taking tentative steps toward restoring a semblance of normalcy. During Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting, a noticeable shift in tone and behavior set the stage for cautious optimism. Both sides avoided hostile rhetoric, signaling the potential for more productive engagements in the future.

    The optics surrounding Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad were notably different from the last high-level meeting between the two countries. During the previous SCO foreign ministers’ meeting in Goa, Jaishankar and his Pakistani counterpart, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, refrained from even shaking hands in public. That encounter was overshadowed by sharp exchanges on issues of terrorism and Kashmir, further entrenching the divide between the two nations.

    In stark contrast, the latest SCO meeting in Islamabad was marked by courtesy, handshakes, and informal conversations between Jaishankar and Pakistan’s foreign minister, as well as Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar. This shift in tone, while modest, signals a potentially significant departure from the hostile posturing that has characterized Indo-Pak relations in recent years.

    Jaishankar’s declaration that India’s policy toward Pakistan is not “passive” but will respond to positive gestures appears to have been reflected in the civility of the Islamabad meeting. If this newfound cordiality is not merely symbolic but the result of behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts, it could mark the beginning of a slow but steady rapprochement between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

    The importance of symbolic gestures and small steps in diplomacy cannot be overstated, especially in the case of India and Pakistan, whose relations have been fraught with historical baggage and deeply entrenched hostilities. A decade-long freeze in formal dialogue has not only stalled diplomatic engagement but has also impacted cultural, trade, and people-to-people exchanges.

    While the meeting in Islamabad did not result in any immediate breakthroughs, the handshakes and informal conversations may have opened the door for incremental progress. According to reports in The Indian Express, one potential outcome could be the resumption of cricketing ties between the two nations a move that has historically served as a confidence-building measure. In addition, both sides could explore other “baby steps,” such as re-establishing modest trade links, exchanging high commissioners, and facilitating easier cross-border movement for citizens.

    However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges. It is one thing to initiate dialogue, but quite another to sustain it. The two countries have a long history of engaging in promising talks, only to see them unravel due to structural impediments and political pressures. The question remains: can these small steps lead to meaningful, long-term changes in the bilateral relationship?

    At the heart of the India-Pakistan impasse are two core concerns India’s emphasis on ending cross-border terrorism and Pakistan’s insistence that progress on the Kashmir issue must precede any broader dialogue. These issues have consistently derailed efforts at reconciliation, and they will likely continue to be major sticking points in any future negotiations.

    During his address at the SCO meeting, Jaishankar invoked the organization’s founding charter, which condemns terrorism, separatism, and extremism issues that have plagued the region for decades. While he did not directly accuse Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, his message was clear: Pakistan needs to reflect on the damage that terrorism has done to regional connectivity and prosperity. This approach reflects India’s longstanding position that no meaningful dialogue can take place until Pakistan takes concrete steps to rein in terrorist groups operating from its soil.

    Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif struck an optimistic note by reaffirming his long-standing desire for improved relations with India, just ahead of Jaishankar’s arrival in Islamabad. – @DrSJaishankar/X

    On the other side, Pakistan’s leadership continues to emphasize the importance of resolving the Kashmir issue. While Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif refrained from mentioning Kashmir in his formal remarks at the SCO, his government’s stance on the issue remains unchanged. The question is whether the two nations can find a way to address these core concerns without allowing them to completely derail the broader relationship.

    Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, known for his more conciliatory approach toward India, set a positive tone ahead of Jaishankar’s visit by reiterating his desire for normal relations between the two countries. This was a notable shift from the more hardline stance often adopted by Pakistan’s leadership, especially under the influence of the military establishment. Nawaz Sharif’s brother, Shehbaz Sharif, the current prime minister, had been harping on the Kashmir issue in the days leading up to the SCO meeting, but his decision to avoid inflammatory remarks during the official proceedings suggests that there may be some willingness in Islamabad to pursue a more pragmatic approach.

    That said, Pakistan’s position on Kashmir is unlikely to change significantly. What could shift, however, is the way in which Pakistan engages with India on the issue. If Pakistan can manage to downplay its rhetoric on Kashmir and focus on building mutual confidence through other avenues, there may be an opportunity for incremental progress on the broader bilateral front.

    While the recent shift in tone is a positive sign, it is essential to recognize the structural impediments that have repeatedly undermined efforts at reconciliation between India and Pakistan. The most significant of these impediments is the entrenched opposition to dialogue on both sides of the border. Over the years, negative voices have gained considerable ground in both countries, with hardline factions in the political and military establishments often derailing diplomatic efforts.

    In Pakistan, the military has traditionally wielded significant influence over foreign policy, particularly in relation to India. Any move toward rapprochement with India is likely to be met with resistance from sections of the military that view India as an existential threat. Similarly, in India, there are powerful voices that oppose any engagement with Pakistan as long as cross-border terrorism continues to pose a threat.

    Both countries will need to find ways to manage these domestic spoilers if they are to sustain even a limited engagement. For Pakistan, this may mean reining in elements within its military and intelligence agencies that have been accused of supporting terrorist activities. For India, it may require a more flexible approach to dialogue, one that is open to confidence-building measures even in the absence of immediate progress on the terrorism front.

    While it is tempting to view the recent developments as the beginning of a new chapter in India-Pakistan relations, it is important to temper optimism with caution. The road ahead will be long and fraught with challenges, and any progress is likely to be slow and incremental.

    One potential area of progress could be India’s eventual restoration of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir. This move, while primarily aimed at addressing domestic concerns, could provide Pakistan with a face-saving mechanism to climb down from its hardline stance on the issue. If Pakistan is willing to reciprocate by taking steps to curb cross-border terrorism, it could pave the way for a broader dialogue on other issues, such as trade, connectivity, and people-to-people exchanges.

    However, before any of this can happen, both nations will need to address the deeply entrenched opposition to dialogue within their own borders. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the recent thaw in relations can lead to more substantive progress or whether it will be yet another false dawn in the long history of Indo-Pak diplomacy.

    While the recent civility between India and Pakistan is a welcome development, the road to reconciliation remains a long and uncertain one. Small steps, such as the resumption of cricketing ties or modest trade exchanges, could help build the mutual confidence necessary for more meaningful engagement. But for these baby steps to translate into sustained progress, both sides will need to manage their domestic opposition and find ways to address the core issues that have kept them at odds for decades. Only time will tell if this thaw will lead to a true spring in Indo-Pak relations.

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