In a recent statement, Union External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar expressed India’s readiness to engage with whoever occupies the Oval Office after the upcoming elections, signifying a willingness to work constructively with the next president of the United States, whether that person is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. This position reflects India’s strategic adaptability in navigating the complexities of U.S. politics, particularly as the country heads toward a closely contested election where the outcome is far from certain. By indicating confidence in collaborating with the next U.S. president, Jaishankar underscores the importance of maintaining strong diplomatic ties regardless of political shifts.
India has prior experience working with Donald Trump, the unpredictable and often controversial former U.S. president. While this experience has its advantages, it also comes with significant challenges due to Trump’s erratic foreign policy decisions, which have often shifted based on his administration’s changing priorities. Just recently, Trump labeled India an “abuser” of import tariffs while praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “fantastic man.” This duality in Trump’s approach exemplifies the contradictions that can arise in his foreign policy, wherein he can simultaneously criticize a country while expressing admiration for its leader. Despite his critical remarks, Trump has expressed an intention to meet Modi during the prime minister’s upcoming visit to the U.S., indicating that he may seek to strengthen ties with India if he is elected again. He also alluded to implementing what he terms “reciprocal trade” policies, suggesting a desire for a more balanced trading relationship between the two nations, although the practical implications of such policies remain uncertain.
On the other side of the political spectrum, President Joe Biden is scheduled to host a summit with leaders from Australia, India, and Japan in Delaware. This gathering is significant as it underscores the strategic importance of India as a counterbalance to China’s increasing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Analysts assert that the Biden administration views India as a critical partner in addressing regional challenges, particularly as China’s assertiveness continues to grow. Furthermore, several world leaders who have visited the U.S. for meetings with Biden have seized the opportunity to engage with Trump, illustrating the former president’s ongoing relevance in global discussions, even as he campaigns for a return to the presidency.
Regarding Kamala Harris, she has not explicitly outlined any policy initiatives focused on India. However, her connection to the country through her Indian heritage her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, was born in Chennai adds a personal dimension to her potential policies. Should she assume office, it is reasonable to expect that she would at least maintain continuity with the Biden administration’s existing policies while potentially introducing her own perspectives. This continuity may provide India with a degree of stability in its diplomatic relations with the United States, especially if the Biden administration’s current strategies prove beneficial for India’s interests.
The Indian establishment’s willingness to adapt its approach underscores its capability to navigate the intricacies of U.S. politics, particularly in an election season where the outcome remains uncertain. The Indian government’s flexibility in collaborating with either Trump or Harris reflects its broader strategy of ensuring that India’s interests remain prioritized, regardless of the political affiliations of U.S. leadership. This adaptability allows India to position itself as a proactive player on the global stage, seeking partnerships that enhance its strategic interests.
Current opinion polls suggest that Harris holds a slight edge over Trump, but the volatile nature of electoral politics means that the landscape could change rapidly. Thus, it would be premature to dismiss the possibility of a Trump victory. The Modi government has historically established a working relationship with Trump, characterized by significant events like the ‘Howdy, Modi!’ rally in the U.S. and the ‘Namaste Trump’ event in India. These interactions have contributed to a sense of camaraderie between the two leaders, which could be advantageous for India should Trump regain the presidency.
On one hand, Harris’s Indian roots present an opportunity for cultural and diplomatic ties, but her progressive political stance raises concerns within the Indian establishment, which tends to approach such ideologies with skepticism. In her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, Harris emphasized the importance of America’s global leadership, framing international relations as a struggle between democracy and tyranny. However, her specific policies regarding India remain largely undefined, leaving significant room for speculation and uncertainty about how she might approach this critical relationship.
In contrast, a Trump presidency could offer a natural alignment with the BJP-led government due to shared conservative values. Both Trump and the BJP espouse ideologies rooted in nationalism and patriotism, and influential Indian nationalist thinkers have drawn parallels between their beliefs and those of American conservatives. This ideological convergence could foster a more congenial diplomatic environment should Trump return to the White House. Additionally, both Modi and Trump perceive themselves as strong leaders capable of implementing significant changes, which may lead to a mutual understanding and collaboration on various issues of strategic importance.
Nevertheless, the complexities of the geopolitical landscape complicate the prospects for U.S.-India relations. Modi’s recent overtures toward Russia, highlighted by his warm interactions with Vladimir Putin, have not been well-received by the Biden administration. Should Trump be re-elected, the dynamics of U.S.-India relations could shift significantly, particularly concerning the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump has repeatedly asserted that he would seek to end the war if re-elected, a move that could alleviate Western pressure on Russia and ultimately benefit India’s strategic interests, especially regarding its challenges with China.
Despite these potential areas of alignment, there are substantial concerns regarding Trump’s foreign policy approach. His previous presidency was characterized by a retreat from global leadership, with the U.S. withdrawing from key international agreements and organizations. This isolationist stance poses challenges for India, which has relied on U.S. support to bolster its global standing over the past several decades. A Trump administration might prioritize economic protectionism and reduce America’s security commitments, potentially destabilizing the geopolitical landscape across Europe and Asia. As a growing power, India is likely to prefer a U.S. administration that promotes stability and cooperation rather than exacerbating tensions.
Conversely, a Harris administration may bring a more predictable approach to foreign policy, aligning with established norms of global engagement. However, the lack of clarity surrounding her policies regarding India leaves significant uncertainty. The prospect of working with either Trump or Harris presents distinct advantages and challenges for India as it navigates its own interests in an increasingly multipolar world.
As the election approaches, India finds itself in a position where it must be prepared to engage with either candidate while continuing to prioritize its national interests. Whether through the potential for stronger ties with Trump or a more stable relationship with Harris, the Indian government is poised to adapt to the evolving dynamics of U.S. politics. Ultimately, the outcome of the election will shape the future of U.S.-India relations and determine the extent to which India can effectively collaborate with the United States in addressing regional and global challenges.
The ability of India to work constructively with either Trump or Harris is indicative of its broader diplomatic strategy, which seeks to ensure that its interests remain central in an unpredictable global landscape. As India continues to assert itself as a significant player on the world stage, its relationships with the U.S. will be vital in navigating the complexities of international relations.
Moreover, the Indian government is aware that the U.S. plays a crucial role in shaping global policies that affect India’s security and economic interests. Whether it is through defense cooperation, trade agreements, or collaborative efforts in tackling climate change and terrorism, India’s partnership with the U.S. will continue to be a cornerstone of its foreign policy. As both Trump and Harris have expressed varying degrees of support for strategic partnerships, India will likely strive to find common ground that benefits its national agenda.
In conclusion, the evolving political landscape in the United States will significantly impact U.S.-India relations in the coming years. While both Trump and Harris offer different approaches and potential benefits, India’s diplomatic flexibility positions it to work effectively with either leader. As the global geopolitical landscape becomes more complex, India’s ability to navigate these changes will be critical in ensuring its strategic interests are safeguarded and advanced on the international stage. The anticipation surrounding the upcoming elections and their implications for U.S.-India relations underscores the importance of proactive engagement and the need for India to remain adaptable in its approach to foreign diplomacy.
